Wired has just published a brief article overnight called “Where is Cloud Headed in 2013?” It makes predictions on Cloud service uptake in the US, but what can we expect in New Zealand?

The early majority takes up Cloud

Wired makes predictions that for the US at least, companies will start the move toward Cloud, actually transitioning services as opposed to the research that has been going on. Wired calls these the “early majority”, which is effectively the wave that comes after the “early adopters” (both come from Moore’s Adoption Curve).

I think in New Zealand the adoption is not in 2013, I think the “critically examine” stage is. That being the point where business and agencies see that Cloud is not going away, that it represents a threat and opportunity, and that they best spend some time and money investing in understanding what it means and what might be early candidates.

The other thing we will likely see in New Zealand is the early adopters taking up Cloud with mixed results. There are a lot of Cloud washed services in New Zealand at the moment and we can expect some early adopters to get snared in those. Others are likely to justify the move as a pure financial savings exercise and run into problems. Those who haven’t done their research may find that Cloud services don’t integrate as well as they thought. However, some of the salmon will make it upstream and successfully take up the Cloud model, watch for them, they are the ones that will have the answers to succeeding.

The emergence of local clouds

Wired asserts that due to legalities, borders, trade, data sovereignty and other elements relating to data, local clouds within states are likely to appear.

Certainly within New Zealand we can expect to see providers standing up Cloud services within our borders for all of the same reasons. Given the state of the world that is likely to continue for some time. Some of the brave early adopters are likely to ignore those local Clouds, which will carry a higher cost, and it will be worth watching how they fare over the year.

Private Clouds set to rise in order to deliver to internal customers

This was interesting. Effectively this is saying that organisations are more likely to focus on provisioning internal Cloud to provide service to their business than going outside for Cloud services.

This has started to happen in some of the larger New Zealand organisations with varying amounts of success. A lot of people I have talked too have invested a lot of money in software to take virtual environments and layer a Cloud like service on top. The problem is that in most cases this has been born in the bowels of the ICT organisation and hasn’t been transitioned successfully to the delivery of ICT services. So the capability is in place, but because the ICT business processes have not been transformed (for example adoption of a service delivery life-cycle) the potential remains locked in that investment. This is likely to continue.

Community Clouds will grow

In the US the growth of Community Cloud, particularly in the health area, has been solid through 2012 and is likely to increase in 2013.

I am not sure we are going to see a lot of this in New Zealand given that we are still in the early adopter phase (and are likely to be in that all the way through 2013) and economies of scale are reduced by community cloud as opposed to public, which increases cost. If we do, it is likely to be in Government and likely to be by a vertical, such as health.

 

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